- The Bitcoin market has simply gone back and forth over the last 2 weeks, as we continue to hang around the 50 Day EMA.
- This is a market that just doesn’t have anywhere to be and at this point it’s unlikely to have any real catalyst until the US government does something.
What I mean by this is that people are simply waiting to see what the US government is going to do as it is a decidedly pro-crypto administration that just entered the White House, but it has yet to do anything, which makes sense as we are only 3 weeks into the term. That being said, the market has recently had a couple of major catalysts to drive it higher, including the IBIT ETF, and the fact that Donald Trump won the election. Because of this, it might be a little bit exhausted, and I am starting to think that we are essentially in the same pattern that we were in for a good portion of 2024.
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Accumulation
I think most traders right now are simply accumulating more Bitcoin, as they are waiting for some type of move. If we break down from here, the $90,000 level is an area of support that I think extends down to the $88,000 level. Anything below that level could open up a move down to the $74,000 level, an area that served as a massive ceiling in the market for most of 2024.
On the upside, if we do break out and go higher, the $100,000 level is essentially “fair value” currently, but if we break above there, then the market is likely to go looking to the $110,000 level. The $110,000 level has served as a hard ceiling in the market, and if we were to break above there, then I think the “measured move” comes into focus, meaning that the Bitcoin market could go looking to the $130,000 level. That being said, in the meantime I think we are just simply accumulating more satoshis in order to prepare for the next move.
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