- In my daily analysis of commodities, the first thing I see is that gold continues to power much higher and it looks like it is more likely than not going to continue going higher over the longer term.
- That being said, it’s not a given that the market just go straight up in the air, and I do think that you will see volatile moves from time to time.
- All things being equal, I do prefer to own gold than to short it, but I also recognize that we are a little bit stretched.
- With that in mind, it would not surprise me at all to see some type of consolidation.
Technical Analysis
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The technical analysis is still rather strong for this gold market, despite the fact that we have gotten a little stretched. It’s worth noting that the daily candlestick from the Tuesday session was a shooting star, which was followed by a hammer on Wednesday, suggesting that there is a bit of uncertainty and indecision. I think given enough time, traders will continue to look at this through the prism of potential consolidation in order to “work off some of the excess froth” that we have seen. Because of this, I am looking for some type of pullback in order to start buying again, but I certainly would not get short of this market.
Even if we were to break down from here, meaning that we break the back of the hammer from the Wednesday session, I still see plenty of support near the $2850 level, followed by the $2800 level after that. It’s really not until we break down below there that I begin to worry about the trend, and even then, I would only classify it as “taking notice” of shifting dynamics as the 50 Day EMA is racing toward that area anyway. Gold continues to look bullish, and I continue to be so of this market.
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