- As you can see, the US dollar has been all over the place against the Canadian dollar, which should not be a major surprise considering that there is the threat of tariffs coming out of Washington against the Canadians, and at the same time, there is really no Canadian government.
- So, this is a major problem. Interestingly enough, though, Trump has said that oil and gas won't be tariffed.
- So that's at least one window of opportunity for the Canadians to get through this somewhat unscathed.
But until the border is fixed, there will be tariffs. Now it's just a matter of time on what those will be. Furthermore, though, nobody really wants to park their money in Canada. It's a bit of a mess as parliament has been essentially
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Parliament is M.I.A.
My understanding is that unless there's some type of massive national emergency, there won't be a convening of parliament. Evidently, 25% tariff from the United States isn't considered to be important enough to get business done. So, with that being said, I think you've got a situation where the interest rate differential and the dysfunction in Canada continues to put the upward pressure on this USD/CAD pair.
But the question is whether or not Trump pulls the trigger or if he mellows out a bit. I suspect he pulls the trigger, but what it actually looks like is what we're still trying to debate here. Pullbacks have support all the way down to at least the 1.43 level where the 50-day EMA currently resides. If we can take out the top of the Thursday Candlestick, then I think the 1.4750 level is calling. There’s no scenario in which I’m willing to short this pair anytime soon, as there are just far too many problems waiting to happen.
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