- The US dollar has gapped higher to kick off the trading session on Monday, as we continue to see more of an upward tilt to the US dollar against the Mexican peso.
- The number of reasons for the US dollar to strengthen against the Mexican peso are massive and far beyond the scope of a quick analysis video, but some of the things you need to pay attention to are the following.
The first thing is the fact that the United States is very likely to end up tariffing Mexico before it's all said and done. If the crackdown on the border isn't sufficient enough to appease Donald Trump, he will levy those tariffs. He will not hesitate. Furthermore, the economy in Mexico has been struggling for some time and it's basically heading into a recession anyway.
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So the fact that the Bank of Mexico had to cut interest rates by 50 basis points the other day puts a fine point on just how bad things might be south of the border all things being equal, the market is pressing up against a significant barrier in the form of 21 pesos and of course after it was announced that the tariff could be pushed back 30 days, we had seen the US dollar pull back from that level. However, since then, we've seen a couple of higher shots in what could be classified as very choppy and sideways action.
There is Still a Floor
I still believe that the 20 Mexican peso level underneath is a massive floor in the market. So, I like buying dips. I don't hang on to this trade very much, though, because the next move will most certainly has something to do with a fundamental analysis type of situation or perhaps an announcement coming out of Washington DC. I have an upward bias, but I only trade short term.
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