- You can see that initially during the trading session we did try to rally with the US dollar against the South African Rand on Thursday, but we have given that back up.
- This is generally speaking a US dollar move that we've seen a little bit of softness, but I'd be a bit cautious about shorting this pair, mainly because there's almost certainly something coming in punitive tariffs or the like against South Africa from the Americans.
The continued removal of farmers from their land and the political violence in South Africa has caught the attention of Donald Trump and he will more likely than not do something. What that ends up being we don't know, it'll probably be an economic tariff type thing or some type of economic punishment, but really at this point in time, the South African Rand isn't where I want to be anyway, leaving Donald Trump out of the equation, because the risk on situation just isn't strong enough to make me want to invest in African currencies, despite the fact that it is a commodity currency, and you can make an argument it's probably the premier currency in Africa.
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Technical Analysis
The 50 day EMA sits just below and that could offer a bit of support right along with the 18.25 level as the 200 day EMA sits just below there. We have the jobs number coming out on Friday and that of course will have a major influence on the US dollar. While it may not directly influence this market, peripherally it will because it will have a major influence on the US dollar overall.
We are at the bottom of an consolidation area that we've been in for a while, so I think that comes into play as well as value hunters might get involved in this general neighborhood. If we were to break down below the 200-day EMA, then we can start to have a different conversation, but I'm actually looking for some type of bounce in this area. We'll just have to wait and see if it comes.
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