- In the oil futures market contract, we have seen oil bounce around in the same range all month for April.
- It looks as if the $60 level is going to be an important support level, while the $65 level is significantly resistant.
- We did have the initial push lower during the beginning of April that saw Light Sweet Crude drop to the $55 level, but we have also seen a major pushback in this area.
- For what it is worth, the area around the $60 level has been important multiple times over the last several years.
Global Trade
This is going to be all about global trade, because we have plenty of supply. Recently, OPEC decided that they were going to continue with the plans to boost production by 400,000 barrels a day, and then in an environment where people believe that there is a massive recession coming for some major economies like the United States, one would have to ask questions about demand. Furthermore, if there is in fact going to be a major global trade war, that means that the demand for crude oil will also drop in that scenario, as less goods will be shipped overseas.
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That being said, there is a positive correlation to this time of year typically, as driving season in the United States starts up. If we can turn around a break above the $65 level, I do think that the crude oil markets will rally, perhaps reaching all the way to the 50 Week EMA. If we break down below the $55 level, we could see the bottom fall out all of the market, and we could see crude oil dropping quite precipitously at that point. It is worth noting that we had seen a lot of volume during the week where we got the massive hammer that was protecting the $60 level, so I do think that some major players are in that vicinity trying to keep the market somewhat level, if not elevated. Expect choppy volatility, but I think oil remains pressured until we can get some type of solution to the tariff issues.
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