Crude Oil Forecast: Continues to Struggle

• The Light Sweet Crude market sold off fairly nastily during the trading session on Thursday, as we have seen a lot of resistance near the 50 Day EMA.
• The 50 Day EMA of course is an indicator that a lot of people pay close attention to, so does make a certain amount of sense that it offered a little bit of a ceiling.
• That being said, the market continues to see a lot of volatility, but that makes sense considering that there are so many things going on in the world at the same time.

After all, we have a lot of concerns about the oversupply of crude oil, but we also have to worry about whether or not traders will see the man come back into the picture, mainly due to the trade wars that are still going on.

Technical Analysis

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The technical analysis for Light Sweet Crude is fairly ugly, although it is worth noting that we have recently seen a little bit of sideways action, and a potential “double bottom” at the $55 level this doesn’t necessarily mean that we have to bounce from here, but it does make a certain amount of sense that we have somewhat rallied over the last week or so. It’s also worth noting that we have bounced from the lows of the day, at least so far, and it looks like the $60 level is also trying to step in and offer support. The $60 level of course is a large, round, psychologically significant figure that probably has quite a bit of options traders watch it.

To the upside, the $65 level sits just above the 50 Day EMA, and that of course is something worth paying attention to. The market breaking above that level could be a very bullish sign, but right now we just don’t seem to have the momentum to break out. That being said, part of what we saw during the trading session on Thursday might just be partly a reaction to the overextension of the market. As a side note, Donald Trump claims that the Americans are fairly close to an agreement with the Iranians as far as a nuclear deal is concerned, and if that’s the case it will add even more oil into the marketplace. It’s going to be a long, hard, struggle to turn the trend around, but we are starting to see the beginning of at least an attempt to do so.

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