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BTC/USD Forecast: Will BTC Break $112K or Stay Range-Bound?

By Christopher Lewis
Senior Technical Analyst

Christopher Lewis is a technical analyst and market commentator at DailyForex with more than two decades of trading experience in Forex and other leveraged markets. Based in Columbus, Ohio, he specializes in chart-based analysis of major currency pairs, stock indices, commodities, and energy markets, focusing on clear support and resistance levels, trend structure, and risk management. Christopher produces daily written and video analysis for tra...

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  • Bitcoin has gone back and forth during the trading session here on Friday as we continue to hover around the $107,000 level.
  • Ultimately, this is a market that I think if you see it pull back a bit, you're probably looking to buy it.
  • The 50-day EMA sits just below the $104,000 level, which is an area where we've seen action previously.

If we can break to the upside and above the shooting star from the session on Thursday, then it opens up the possibility of a move to the $110,000 level, which is the top of the $10,000 range we have been in. Now, keep in mind that we did break above the $110,000 level previously and reached as high as $112,000, but did not manage to continue the uptrend.

BTC/USD Forecast 30/06: Will BTC Stay Range-Bound? (graph)

So, I think really what you need to see for more of a larger impulsive move is for Bitcoin to break above $112,000 and sustain it. If it can, then I don't see anything stopping it from going to $120,000. But quite frankly, I've been saying that for two and a half months now. And that's part of what makes trading Bitcoin so difficult, because it does tend to put traders to sleep for months at a time. And then eventually we'll find a reason to go higher.

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It is an industrial and institutional held ETF now. So that does help at least put a little bit of a bid in it, regardless of what's going on. So, it's almost impossible to short. It's almost like trading an index. You just don't short indices very often. That's going to be the same thing with Bitcoin. If we broke down below the $100,000 level, then we could drop towards the 200 day EMA, but I don't see that happening, at least not with some type of major risk-off occurrence.

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Senior Technical Analyst
Christopher Lewis is a technical analyst and market commentator at DailyForex with more than two decades of trading experience in Forex and other leveraged markets. Based in Columbus, Ohio, he specializes in chart-based analysis of major currency pairs, stock indices, commodities, and energy markets, focusing on clear support and resistance levels, trend structure, and risk management. Christopher produces daily written and video analysis for traders who rely on technical setups to navigate volatile market conditions

As seen on: Pairs Of Aces Podcast,The Trader Guy, FXEmpire

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