- The EUR/USD pair has been very noisy over the last several weeks, as may has been a very volatile month overall.
- When you look at the weekly chart, you can see that there is a lot of noise between the 1.3 level on the bottom in the 1.15 level above.
- All things being equal, this is a market that I think will continue to show a lot of noise, but I will be watching the 1.12 level very closely, because that could be a signal that the US dollar starts to take off not only against the Euro itself, but also the bulk of other major currencies.
Technical Analysis
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The technical analysis for this market is one that’s been very bullish as of late, but when you look at the longer-term charts, thinking back several years, there is a lot of noise in this general vicinity, and perhaps more importantly, resistance. Furthermore, there is very mixed consensus when it comes to the growth situation in the European Union, despite the fact that Germany seems to be doing fairly well. The tariff situation between the United States and the European Union will continue to be a potential problem as well, so with all of that being said, I expect this to be a currency pair that you should be watching very closely for signs of what’s going to happen with the US dollar around the world. In fact, I may not even be a huge trader of this pair during the month of June, but if we break out all of this range, I will certainly be trading the dollar in whatever direction that ends up being.
If we were to break above the crucial 1.15 level, then I would anticipate that as the euro goes looking to the 1.1750 level. Furthermore, it also expect to see the US dollar shrink against most currencies, so if we do get a breakout here, I will probably short the US dollar against multiple other currency such as the Canadian dollar, the British pound, etc. However, if we see the pair break down lower, then I probably start buying the US dollar against the euro, but most certainly other weaker economies such as Canada.
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