Potential signal:
- At this point in time, if we can break above the $3400 level, then I think short-term traders probably come in and started buying this market.
- The stop loss would have to be the $3350 level, and a potential target of $3490 level.
Gold continues to see a lot of buyers on dips, as Friday has been more of the same.
All things being equal, this is a market that is trying to sort out where to go longer term, but I think the answer is somewhat straightforward, as it has been in an uptrend for a while.
The uptrend has plenty of reasons to think it should continue, mainly due to the fact that central banks around the world are buying gold hand over fist, and I think that continues to be a significant benefit for gold at this point in time.
Furthermore, you have all of the noise in the Middle East going on right now, as the war between Israel and Iran would have a lot of people concerned. Ironically though, gold is basically priced in the same general vicinity as it was when that war started. Because of this, it’ll be interesting to see how this plays out over the longer term, but either way, gold has been bullish, and it looks like we could continue to see more.
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Technical Analysis
The technical analysis for this pair has been very bullish for a long time, but it now looks as if the $3500 level is a massive barrier, and I would anticipate that there are a lot of options barriers planted there as well. That being said, if we can break above that level, it opens up a huge move to the upside of about $300. The consolidation area that we find ourselves in right now is roughly $300, with the $3200 level underneath offering support, with the $3500 level above offering resistance.
The 50 Day EMA sits just below the $3300 level and is rising. All things being equal, this is a market that short-term pullbacks probably continue to attract a lot of interest in this market, and ultimately, I think it’s probably only a matter of time before something happens to have people running toward safety. However, if we were to break down below the $3100 level, then we have to ask questions about the trend.
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