- The US dollar fell a bit during the trading session against the Mexican peso on Tuesday as we are reaching the 19 peso level again.
- This is a pair that of course is going to remember the overall risk appetite situation going on around the world.
- This has a major influence on what happens with the US dollar and by extension the Mexican peso.
The Mexican peso also does heavily rely on the idea of exporting to the United States. So if the US economy is doing fairly strong, then the Mexican peso will strengthen. It's a little bit of a backwards relationship than you expect, but all things being equal, this is a market that had rallied quite nicely to reach the 50 day EMA before falling apart. If we can break down below the 18.8 Mexican peso level, then I think we have a real shot at going to the 18.6 level and then eventually the 17.65 level.
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Keep in mind, you do get paid to hang on to a short position in this particular pair as the Mexican Central Bank offers much more in the way of swap. I don't have any interest in buying this USD/MXN pair and if the US dollar does strengthen, this is not where I'm going to be buying it. So as long as the US dollar continues to struggle, then I think this is a pair that eventually will continue to go lower.
Break-in above the 50-day EMA could open up a move to the 19.5 level, but that's an area that I think has been very important multiple times. And of course, we have the 200 day EMA sitting right around the same level as well. So, all of that comes into the picture to offer a little bit of a ceiling.
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