- The US dollar initially did drift a little bit higher during the trading session on Thursday but has dropped against the Mexican peso.
- As we continue to see that slow decline in the greenback against its southern neighbor, the interest rate differential favors Mexico.
- All things being equal, this is a sign of stability more than anything else because the moves aren't violent, they're not sudden.
And they're not even necessarily news driven people are collecting their swap here. That being said, it's also worth noting that the 50 day EMA has broken below the 200 day EMA kicking off the so called death cross, which a lot of longer term traders will pay attention to when you're trading exotic currency pairs, such as the dollar against the Mexican peso.
Top Regulated Brokers
Exotic Currencies Tend to Be Longer-Term Trades
A lot of times you're talking about longer term holdings. So, this is a play on the interest rate differential more than anything else. Ironically, the better the US economy does, the better off the Mexican peso will do mainly due to the fact that Mexico is the number one exporter to the United States. It's not China, it's Mexico.
So, it makes sense that if you have an economy that relies on exports and your biggest customer is doing well, you will do well by extension also. That being said, recently we had seen the US dollar strengthen against Mexican peso quite rapidly. But that of course had to do with the tariff situation, which by the way, seems to have calmed down at least between the Americans and Mexicans at the moment. And that's really all that matters here.
So, with that, I like fading short-term rallies and with the non-farm payroll announcement on Friday, we may get one of those. The 19 Mexican peso level, of course, is a large round psychologically significant figure, but I think at this point in time, that's where the market's eventually going to try to get to with the 19.42 Mexican peso level as significant resistance.
Ready to trade our Forex daily analysis and predictions? Here are the best forex brokers in Mexico to choose from.