- The light sweet crude oil market found itself to be a little bit negative during the trading session on Monday.
- But we are in a situation where oil is trying to figure out what to do with the longer term move.
- After all, it's summertime and that is typically very bullish for oil. And that does provide a little bit of support.
Keep in mind that the $65 level underneath is a large round psychologically significant figure that also had previously been significant resistance. So, there is a certain amount of market memory in this neighborhood. I have to ask the question as to whether or not we can break down. And it looks to me like we are starting to see a little bit of hesitation from the sellers. And therefore, I think oil probably stays within the range that it's been in over the last couple of weeks.
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It's very boring and very difficult trading to watch, but this is a scenario that can often repeat itself every summer. So, I will put a summer range in this consolidation area, and we'll see if we break out of it. If we can break above the $70 level I think you've got a situation where the market could go much higher, but we need a reason. And right now, we just don't have it. I think the market is essentially stuck between $65 at the bottom and $70 at the top, which is typical for oil. tends to stay in well-defined ranges, barring some type of external factor like the recent one between Israel and Iran the conflict really getting the markets moving. But once you're not seeing that, $5 ranges, sometimes $10 ranges are pretty much the norm here.
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