- The Australian dollar has been back and forth pretty significantly during the trading session here on Tuesday as we are threatening to retake the previous uptrend line, but we’re also supported a bit by the 50 day EMA.
- Ultimately, this is a market that I think given enough time probably has to make a bigger decision, but as things stand right now, it looks like despite the fact that the US dollar lost quite a bit of strength, the reality is that the Australian dollar has been extraordinarily weak.
- This is something that I have been talking about for some time. Because of this, the market is likely to continue to be noisy and choppy.
But I also recognize that the Australian dollar has been a bit of a difficult currency to hang on to because quite frankly, it just hasn't behaved like so many of the others. As the US dollar lost strength earlier over the last couple of months, the Australian dollar, although it did rise, it did so very choppy and very subtly. It wasn't a big move like you would expect.
Aussie Remains “Suspicious”
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So, in comparison to the British pound or the euro, it's really weak looking and I would say the same thing about the New Zealand dollar in the Japanese yen. So, this tells me this is an Asiatic problem at this point. If we do see this market break down from here and clear the swing low here at about 0.6420, then I think the bottom falls out.
If we rally from here, I think the 0.66 level is going to end up being a difficult ceiling to break above. If we do, that would be massive for the bulls. This is a market that I think remains a grinder at this point in time.
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