Potential signal:
- If crude oil can close above the $65 level, I am a buyer with a stop loss near the $63.75 level, and a target of $70.
The Monday session has seen a lot of buying pressure, as we are testing a few important levels and indicators. This market has been struggling overall, but at this point it is going to be facing serious headwinds. At this point, the market is likely to face serious pressures, as the level we are at has been important multiple times.
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Technical Analysis
The technical analysis for this pair is in a state of flux. The market is trying to test the $65 level, an area that has been both support and resistance multiple times. The 50 Day EMA is sitting there are well, and this could offer even more problems. Having said that, the candlestick on Monday is very strong looking, so there is certainly at least a bit of interest. This is a market that has been moving on the idea that the Russians, OPEC, and the Americans are all pumping out a ton of oil, which could cause a bit of downward pressure on pricing. However, Donald Trump has signed more tariffs on Iranian tankers, and this caused a bit of upward pressure.
This market will continue to focus on the overall global economic activity, which is something that I’ve been watching very closely, because if the Federal Reserve does in fact see the need to cut interest rates, it will eventually signal that the global economy is slowing down. Crude oil of course is the “lifeblood” of economic activity, and this is something that you cannot divorce from price action. I suspect at this point we are likely to see some major decisions being made, so that could lead to a little bit of volatility. This bounce has been quite nice, but when you look at the overall trajectory of crude oil over the last 6 weeks or so, you also recognize that we are essentially “swimming upstream” at the moment. That being said, if we can break above the $66 level, then we might have quite a bit of upward momentum and perhaps a “FOMO trading.”
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