- The West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market was rather choppy during the trading session on Thursday, as we are hanging around the $64 level.
- Ultimately though, this is a market that I think has a lot of noise around it, not the least of which would be the fact that the president of the United States even suggested that oil prices were dropping.
- While that’s not necessarily an expert opinion, the reality is that the voice of the president has a lot to do as far swaying opinion. Furthermore, he also has a hand in the idea of rebuilding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, so there is a certain amount of influence there.
Technical Analysis
The technical analysis for this market is slightly negative, but quite frankly I think it’s more consolidation than anything else. The $65 level has been important multiple times from both a support and a resistance standpoint. What makes that area even more interesting at the moment is the fact that the 50 Day EMA sits at the $64.95 level, suggesting that there is even more noise just waiting to happen there. If we can break above there, then the market could go looking for the 200 Day EMA which is at the $67.41 level and dropping.
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On the downside, the market were to break down below the $63 level, then it opens up the to the $62 level. Anything below there would be an extraordinarily negative turn of events and would certainly weigh upon the crude oil market overall.
Oversupply
One of the biggest problems that the crude oil markets face right now is the fact that there is a significant amount of oversupply in the market. Russia, OPEC, and the United States are all increasing production, so every time this market rallies, it is going to face a certain amount of downward pressure, simply due to the fact that there is so much oil out there at the moment that it’s difficult to imagine a scenario without some type of external pressure to send this market screaming higher. Ultimately, I think we are going to go back and forth with the $65 level a bit of a magnet for price.
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