Potential signal:
- I’m a buyer of this pair if we can get a daily close above the ¥200.20 level.
- At that point, I would have a stop loss at the ¥198.90 level and would be aiming for the ¥203 level.
The British pound fell to kick off the Friday session against the Japanese yen, reaching down on to the ¥199 level before turning around. By doing so, the market looks as if there is a certain amount of resilience to the selling pressure near the ¥200 level, but this will be a candlestick that looks a lot like a hammer, just as we saw during the Thursday session. In other words, we are definitely seeing a lot of buying pressure that is fighting the resistance at the large, round, psychologically significant figure.
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Technical Analysis
The technical analysis for this pair is extraordinarily strong, but we also have a very stubborn amount of resistance at the large, round, psychologically significant level of ¥200, and in this environment, it certainly looks like we are going to do everything we can to break above the level. We have not been able to yet, but it certainly looks like there is a lot of interest in trying to push this market to the upside.
It’s probably worth noting also that the 50 Day EMA currently sits at the ¥197.45 level and is rising. Below there, we have the 200 Day EMA just below the ¥195 level. In other words, the moving averages are both rising and rapidly approaching the current trading levels. At this point, I think if we can get a nice daily close above the ¥200 level, then we will continue to see this pair rally quite significantly. I would expect a move to at least ¥203, possibly even higher than that.
Risk Appetite
Keep in mind that risk appetite is highly influential as to what happens in this market as the Japanese yen is considered to be a “safety currency” that a lot of traders will run to in times of fear. While the British pound isn’t necessarily a “risky currency”, the reality is that it is much further out on the risk spectrum than the Japanese yen due to interest rates and overall international flows.
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