USD/CHF Forecast: Struggles Near 50-Day EMA as Volatility Persists

• The US dollar try to rally against the Swiss franc initially during trading on Tuesday but struggled a bit as we continue to see a lot of noisy behavior overall.
• This is a market that I think will remain a bit soft, although I am looking at it through the lens of a potential bottoming pattern.
• After all, we did just form a bit of a “double bottom” at the 0.79 level, and now it looks as if we are trying to turn things around and break out to the upside over the last week or so. However, the Tuesday trading action looks rather anemic and therefore I am a bit more cautious than I was just a couple of days ago.

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The 50 Day EMA is right here in this same neighborhood, so I would anticipate that people will be looking at this area as an area that is very important, and I do think that it is probably only a matter of time before we need to make some type of bigger decision. That being said, this is a market also that I think is very noisy and therefore we need to pay close attention to what the US dollar is doing overall. After all, as a general rule, the US dollar will behave the same against most currencies and therefore we start to see the US dollar strength across the board, it is possible that we could see it here.

That being said, keep in mind that the Swiss franc is considered to be the “ultimate safety currency”, and as a result we need to understand that it is a bit of a buffer for the week handed traders out there that are currently panicking in various assets. It’s been a very volatile and noisy couple of months, and quite frankly the algorithms causing chaos via computer trading around the world is almost certainly going to have human traders looking for safety. While both of these are safety currencies, if things get bad enough even the US dollar falls victim to the Swiss franc. I suspect we see a lot of noisy behavior right around this level for the next couple of days.

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