- The US dollar has been strong against the Indian rupee for some time, and part of that could be due to the fact that Donald Trump has threatened India with tariffs for some time, due to India buying crude oil from the Russians.
- That being said, Wednesday has seen Donald Trump actually inflict a 25% tariff on Indian goods, which obviously will not do much in the way of favors for the Indian economy.
- If the Indian economy has been sluggish for a while, so this is only going to make things worse.
That being said, it’s probably worth noting that as an American, you don’t see a lot of Indian goods and services. Most of it is technology related, and one of the biggest complaints by US consumers is the fact that many of these larger companies use Indian call centers. It’ll be interesting to see how that influences whether or not that’s the way going forward, as that is most certainly one of the major exports that the Indians do send to the Americans.
Major Barrier Above
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The most obvious spot on this chart as far as I can see is the ₹88.20 level, and if we can break above there, it’s likely that the US dollar will scream higher. Recently, we have seen the US dollar knocked on that level a couple of times, but it’s also worth noting that the central bank in India is highly influential in this market, and it is not necessarily a free-floating currency. It will all come down to whether or not the Indian central bank chooses to determine whether the ₹88.20 level is worth defending, or if it will let the rupee flowed freely for a while. Given the fact that there are tariffs levied against Indian goods and services at the moment, a weakening currency might actually help offset the tariffs, so would not surprise me at all to see this market continue to go higher. On the downside, we have major support right around the ₹87 level, followed by the ₹86.50 level, where the 50 Day EMA resides. The target to the upside probably would be somewhere near the ₹90 level at the moment.
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