- Bitcoin initially rallied during the trading session on Monday, reaching toward the $117,000 level before rolling over.
- This is a market that has seen is not a huge surprise to see that there is little bit of “market memory” in this region.
- The shape of the candlestick is looking more and more like a shooting star, and that could lead to more Bitcoin selling.
Interesting Week
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Keep in mind that although there is expected to be a 0.25% interest rate cut during the trading session on Wednesday by the Federal Reserve, then we have 3 other central banks out there talking about interest rate decisions, and that could give us a bit of an idea of where the global economy is going, at least as far as the central banks think. While loose monetary policy helps Bitcoin, if there is a sudden “risk off move” around the world that would be a very bad sign for Bitcoin.
In other words, it’s not necessarily about the interest rate decision, rather the narrative that central banks around the world start to spend. If there is a lot of concern, it’s difficult to imagine that Bitcoin attracts a lot of inflows. However, if the Federal Reserve seems like it’s fairly confident at the moment but recognizes that the economy needs a little bit of “loose money”, that could help Bitcoin. On the other hand, if there’s panic, we have a lot of problems ahead.
Technical Analysis
Bitcoin currently sits just above the 50 Day EMA, and at this point in time, you also need to pay close attention to the $110,000 level as it is a large, round, psychologically significant figure, and an area that a lot of people would be paying close attention to. On the other hand, if we were to break to the upside, clearing the $117,000 level, then we could see Bitcoin reaching the $120,000 level, an area that has been very troublesome. The only thing I think you can count on this week will be choppy volatility.
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