- The Bitcoin market rallied a bit during the course of the trading session on Friday, but at the Non-Farm Payroll Announcement has been horrific, with the United States adding just 22,000 jobs during the month of August, instead of the expected 75,000.
- This has been a major “risk off” trading session, which will have a major influence on whether or not institutional traders are willing to jump in and start buying Bitcoin.
Risk Appetite
While I believe that most traders were looking for interest rate cuts in the September meeting from the Federal Reserve, the question now is going to be “How many rate cuts between now and the end of the year?” If the Federal Reserve sounds panicky at all during its September meeting, it could cause a massive plunge with anything remotely close to a risk appetite trade.
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At this point, the 50 Day EMA has offered a significant amount of resistance near the $113,200 level, and if we were to turn around a break above there it would be a very bullish sign for Bitcoin. The $110,000 level is a bit of support from a psychological standpoint, but we have sliced through the couple of times. Below there, then you have the $108,000 level, followed by the $104,400 level where the 200 Day EMA currently sits.
Ultimately, I think Bitcoin is going to be difficult to get a handle on, and we could very well see a bit of a plunge before the FOMC rate cuts. Eventually though, those very rate cuts that could show signs of panic eventually will fuel the next rally in Bitcoin. After all, Bitcoin is considered to be one way to get away from fiat money, and central bank loose monetary policy. However, in the short term I suspect that we will see a lot of concern and fear out there that could play this market.
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