- The Light Sweet Crude Oil market has been very choppy during the month of September, and at this point in time, I think you still have the potential for a lot of the same.
- After all, crude oil has essentially been “stuck” in a range for a while, with the exception of Israel and Iran going to direct conflict.
- Once that was over, we haven’t seen much in the way of bullish behavior in the crude oil markets, and I think there are a multitude of reasons to believe that it will remain the same for the month of October.
Technical Analysis
The technical analysis for this pair is rather straightforward, as we have seen a lot of resistance right around the $66 level, and a lot of support at the $60 level underneath. Ultimately, these are “zones of support and resistance”, so I think we will remain very sideways, but we will probably remain very choppy and sloppy in our trading. I don’t think oil has any real reason to go one direction or the other at the moment, because quite frankly I think there is a lot of confusion out there at the moment.
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Supply and Demand
The biggest problem oil has right now is that the United States, Russia, and OPEC are all increasing production, and this is at a time when demand could be slipping. However, it’s also worth noting that the American numbers recently have shown that the US is of course, starting to burn a lot of oil. However, the rest of the world is a bit of a mixed picture, and as long as that ends up being the case, we probably don’t have an argument for crude oil to rally significantly.
This is literally a moving target at the moment, but as things stand right now, especially considering how the final week of September is starting to shape up, it looks like we just don’t have the momentum to break out to the upside. If we can break down below the $60 level, then we could drop as low as $56, but truthfully that might be a bridge too far as well. I expect October to be very much like September as things stand at the moment.
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