- The euro has shown itself to be rather bullish in the early part of the trading session here on Friday as it looks like we are trying to break to the upside.
- All things being equal you can make an argument for an ascending triangle that we are trying to break out of but at this point, I think it is a situation where traders are basically trying to find some type of yield.
- You do get a positive swap while holding this pair to the upside. If we do pull back the uptrend line from the ascending triangle and the 50 day EMA offer support somewhere, we'll just call it the 172 yen level to the upside. This isn’t a clearcut level, rather an “area of interest” I am watching if we take off to the upside.
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The 175.50 yen level is an area that had been a swing high back in the middle of 2024. And I think there might be a little bit of market memory in that area causing some resistance, but there's really nothing on this chart to suggest that we can get there. And if you take the measured move of the triangle itself, you're looking at about 177 yen as a target.
I have no interest in shorting this market unless we break down below the 169.70 level. At that point, one would have to assume that the yen is strengthening against many other currencies, not just the Euro.
All things being equal, you have to pay close attention to the risk appetite. And if risk appetite continues to be fairly decent, that should send this market higher because of course the Euro is considered to be riskier than the Japanese yen.
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