- The euro has shown itself to be a little bit positive against the Japanese yen during trading on Monday as we continue to dance around the top of an ascending triangle. Ultimately, this is a market that I think could go looking for a major swing high at the 175.53 yen level, but it is going to have to build up a little bit of momentum. Quite frankly, the markets are waning back and forth between risk on or risk off behavior.
- But as long as we get some type of risk appetite out there, I think you've got a very real shot at the Euro rising against the Japanese yen and perhaps trying to hit that 175.53 yen level.
Pullbacks Remain Attractive
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Short-term pullbacks should see plenty of support all the way to the bottom of the triangle, which does of course have an uptrend line. And then we have the 50 day EMA sitting just below the 172 yen level. I do not wish to short this pair of the interest rate differential favors Europe, although there are higher paying currencies out there that you can trade against the yen. But this one looks like it's particularly stable. It's a matter of just collecting your swap at the end of every day and waiting for the market to rise. At least that's the theory that we have at the moment. If we do drop down below the 50 day EMA, then we could get a move down to the 169.69 yen level, but right now it doesn't look like it wants to do that. And therefore, I think we've got a situation where we continue to see buyers on dips and eventually a grind to the upside. The bank of Japan currently looks as if it may have to do something but right now it looks more likely to be loosening than tightening.
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