- The US dollar initially rallied against the Canadian dollar during the early hours on Tuesday, but we have seen the market turn around and show signs of hesitation.
- Whether or not that continues to be the case remains to be seen, but ultimately this is a situation where we find ourselves in a fairly tight range that has been well-defined for several weeks.
Technical Analysis
The 1.39 level continues to be a major resistance barrier, but we also have the 200 Day EMA sitting just below there at the 1.3863 level. We also have the 1.3850 level, which is an area that a lot of people will be looking at as a magnet for price, and then underneath there we have the 1.3789 level offering support. Breaking down below that opens up the possibility of the 1.38 level offering a floor in the market. With all that being said, I think we continue to see a lot of back and forth choppy behavior, because it is likely to be a market where we are trying to sort out whether or not there is any longer-term change.
Keep in mind that Canada has a lot of issues at the moment, and of course the Federal Reserve just started cutting rates. While the market has been quiet as of late, the reality is likely to continue to see a lot of choppiness, and eventually we will see an explosive move. That’s basically how this pair moves, it’s very quiet for a while, and then makes an impulsive jump higher or an impulsive drop lower. At this point, I still prefer of the US dollar of the Canadian dollar, for no other reason than I think were about to see a global slowdown. Beyond that, the interest rate differential still favors the United States, so I think ultimately you have to look at this as a market that is offering an opportunity to simply play the swap at the end of every day until we finally get some type of clarity, and at that point in time I will be more likely to get much bigger in this pair.
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Potential signal: I’m a buyer of the USD/CAD pair at 1.3915, with a stop loss of 1.3815, and a target of 1.42.
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