- The US dollar initially rallied a bit during the early hour here on Monday, but you can see we have struggled a bit.
- And at this point in time, this looks like a market that's hanging around the 200 day EMA, which of course is an indicator that a lot of people use to determine the overall trend. And it's worth noting that the 200 day EMA right now, it's flat
Nowhere to Be? Maybe.
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So, a flat 200 day EMA suggests that we probably don't have anywhere to go in the short term. That is backed up by the 50 day EMA going relatively flat as well. So ultimately this is a market that I think stays in the range that it's been in for a while. The 146 yen level underneath offers support with the 149 level above being resistance. With this being the case, I think we've got a situation where short-term pullbacks offer buying opportunities based on value. The interest rate differential favors the United States dollar and that will continue to be the case. If we were to break down below the Wednesday hammer from last week, then I think the US dollar really starts to drop perhaps down to the 143 yen level.
On the other hand, though, breaking above that 149 yen level opens up the possibility of a move to the 151 yen level. And then after that, the 155 yen level. Ultimately, this is a market that I think continues to see a lot of choppiness. However, I also recognize that this is a very noisy market that if you are careful with, you can continue to take advantage of the interest rate differential and the swap at the end of every day, which is basically what I've been doing with this pair.
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