- The US dollar initially fell on Tuesday against the Mexican peso, but has turned around to show signs of life, as it looks like we are trying to form some type of hammer.
- It is worth noting that the 18.50 MXN level underneath is going to continue to offer support, an area that has been very difficult to break through.
- This makes quite a bit of sense, because at this point in time, we are trying to understand where the global economy is going, and that means that risk appetite suddenly comes to the forefront of how traders allocate trading capital.
Technical Analysis
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The technical analysis in this market is somewhat sideways over the last month, but it is worth noting that we had pulled back significantly. The 50 Day EMA is sitting above and dropping a bit, but it could offer a bit of resistance if we do rally toward it. If we break down below the 18.50 MXN level, then it’s likely that we could see this market fall apart. At that point, I would anticipate the US dollar trading down to the 18 MXN level. If we break to the upside, the 19 MXN level almost certainly offer a bit of a barrier.
US Economy and Mexico
Keep in mind that the US economy has a major influence on Mexico, as Mexico is the largest exporter in the world to the United States. Simply put, the United States slowdown, and we did get a horrific jobs report last week, it will have a massive effect on Mexico and its industries. With this being the case, the market is likely to continue to see a lot of volatility, but if the US economy does of course fall apart, I think the US dollar will actually take off to the upside in this market. That being said, you should also keep in mind that the Mexican peso pays a positive swap if you start shorting this market, so that could cause a bit. At this point, we look very sideways, but I do think were about to make a pretty big move.
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