- The US dollar initially rallied during trading here on Wednesday but gave back gains rather quickly as we continue to see a lot of back and forth trading.
- Ultimately, this is a market where I think given enough time, we'll have to make a bigger decision.
- But as we head towards the non-farm payroll announcement on Friday, it's likely that we are going to see a lot of hesitation.
So, over the next day or two, I think we've got a scenario where traders are probably a little bit cautious at this point. They don't want to get too far ahead of the Federal Reserve announcement, which will be preceded by the jobs number that could have an influence on this.
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At this point, if we break down below the 18.5 level, I suspect we would see the US dollar really start to fall perhaps down to the 18 level. The 50 day EMA sits just above, and I think that could cause a little bit of resistance. If we can break above the 18.75 level, it opens up the possibility of the 19 level being targeted. After that, we have the 19.23 level where the 200 day EMA is. The interest rate differential does favor Mexico.
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So, you get paid to be short of this pair. But with that vital jobs number coming out in basically 36 hours from here, I don't really think that a lot of traders are willing to put a lot of money into play unless the jobs number is something extraordinarily adverse to the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates narrative.
I think any rally at this point in time does continue to look suspicious, at least until we can get a daily close above the crucial 19 Mexican pesos level. Anything above there does start to change the narrative. But right now, this just looks like a market that is grinding sideways trying to work off some of that downward momentum.
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