- The U.S. dollar has been a bit choppy against the Mexican peso during the trading session on Friday as we continue to just grind sideways overall. This is a market that, course, is paying attention to a lot of different things at the moment, not the least of which would be the U.S. government shutdown. However, really, when you look at the longer term picture, you see that the US dollar had skyrocketed back in the middle of April of 2024, extending from the 16.3 level all the way to the 21.3 level before pulling back. With that being the case, we find ourselves sitting just above the 61.8 % Fibonacci retracement level. And therefore, some technical traders will be watching this.
- The 18.20 Mexican pesos level for me is important because if we break down below there, typically I start aiming for a complete turnaround of the Fibonacci level, meaning we could drop all the way back down to the bottom.
- Short-term rallies will face some problems with 18.5 pesos and the 50-day EMA at the 18.57 level, which is dropping.
Big Trend Line
If you choose to draw a trend line, you can draw one here that sits just above that level. A little bit messy at this point in time, but there is a trend line to be had. With this being said, it does walk right along with the 50 day EMA. So, I think that's what you're watching. If the U.S. dollar can overtake somewhere around 18.7 pesos, then it could change the overall trend. Again, if we drop below 18.2 pesos, I think we have much further to go. The first longer term target would be something along the lines of 17.66. You do get paid to be short of this market because of the interest rate differential, but if the U.S. economy starts to grind to a halt, that does horrible things to the Mexican economy. After all, Mexico is the world's largest exporter to the United States and that is a very unique situation. As things stand right now, though, I think you're still looking at this as a fade the rally on signs of exhaustion type of market.
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