- The US dollar continues to struggle against the Mexican peso, which is actually a somewhat bullish sign for risk appetite as the Mexican peso is considered to be a “risk on currency.”
- Ultimately, this is a different kind of currency pair than you see around the world most of the time, as although the US dollar is considered to be a safety currency, the better the US economy does, the better the Mexican peso does.
This is mainly due to the fact that the Mexican peso, or perhaps more simply, the Mexican economy is heavily influenced by exports to the United States, as Mexico is the largest exporter to America. If the American economy continues to strengthen, that helps Mexico overall. The interest rate differential favors the Mexican peso, so you do get paid to short this pair.
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Technical Analysis
The technical analysis for this pair is obviously very bearish, as we have a major downtrend line that is offering resistance, and we have the 50 Day EMA walking right along that downtrend line. Furthermore, we have the 18.50 MXN level offering resistance, all coalescing together to offer a little bit of a short-term barrier. The recent action had seen the US dollar try to rally, but it ended up failing multiple times just above the 18.50 MXN level.
As a result this is a market that I think continues to see plenty of selling pressure, and as long as that’s the case, you are more likely than not see a lot of negativity. With that being the case I think you have to look at this as the study downtrend that you might be looking for in order to take advantage of not only positive swap, but also the nice grinding momentum that leads to the longer term trends.
I have no interest in buying this pair, but if we start to see markets fall apart, meaning that risk gets eviscerated, then I could consider buying this pair, but until then it’s a “fade the rally” scenario.
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