- The euro continues to fluctuate against the Swiss franc, holding just above the 50-day EMA.
- With the SNB closely monitoring the pair due to export concerns, traders remain cautious near the 0.93 level, watching for a potential upside move.
The euro has gone back and forth during the course of the trading session against the Swiss franc on Friday as we continue to hover just above the crucial 50-day EMA. Keep in mind this is a market that is highly sensitive to risk appetite, and we have to remember that the Swiss National Bank has consistently threatened to get involved in this market as they watch the euro as the biggest measuring stick of where the Swiss franc is going.
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After all, over 80% of Swiss exports end up in the European Union, and therefore a Swiss franc that is extraordinarily strong against the euro causes havoc for Swiss exporters. This is the first currency pair that the Swiss will watch. So be cautious, because if it does start to melt down, then the Swiss franc is likely to see intervention, and you will see that as a knock-on effect in multiple other Swiss franc–denominated pairs.
As things stand right now, it looks like we are hesitating a bit, and that’s probably not a huge surprise. But if we can break to the upside, the 200-day EMA at the 0.9358 level is an area I’ll be watching as a potential target and a potential ceiling. A short-term pullback at this point is probably okay, but if we start to get below the 0.9250 level, then you have a situation where a lot of people come into the picture.
All things being equal, this is a market that I think continues to see a lot of noise, as is particularly the case—the 0.93 level is basically like a magnet for price. Keep in mind that short-term sideways trading is likely to continue in this market, but eventually, I would anticipate a little bit of a break higher.
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