- The euro rallied against the Swiss franc after initially dipping during the trading session on Thursday.
- This is a pair that has been interesting to watch, as the euro has shot straight up from the crucial 0.92 level.
- The 0.92 level may have been an area that the Swiss decided to defend, as it is a large, round, psychologically significant figure and an area that acts like a brick wall.
Keep in mind that the Swiss National Bank has stated openly that it has no interest in seeing a strong Swiss franc, at least not to these extents, as the market continues to pile into it. This pair is interesting because the Swiss pay close attention to the interest rate differential between the two currencies and the exchange rate, as 85% of Switzerland’s exports end up in the European Union. Simply put, they cannot afford to have their currency that strong against the euro because it damages trade.
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At this point, attention is on the 0.9333 level, which is essentially where the pair previously peaked. If price can make a fresh new high, that would be a strong sign that it will challenge the 200-day EMA and possibly move even higher. This raises the question of whether a massive double or even triple bottom has just formed. If so, there may be a long way to go to the upside.
Pullbacks at this point almost certainly will get bought into because they will be viewed as value. The Swiss have announced that they are watching the currency markets closely and may defend a specific level. Traders remember that the Swiss National Bank held this pair at a specific level for ages several years back, so the market knows it has the wherewithal, and the reaction reflects that. The outlook remains bullish for this pair.
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