Nasdaq Forecast: Looking for a Bounce

• The Nasdaq 100 looks vulnerable to near 25,000 but remains in a broader uptrend.
• I’m watching for a bounce before reentering long positions, viewing any pullback as a potential dip-buying opportunity barring deeper weakness below 23,500.

The Nasdaq 100 looks very much like an index that’s going to drop a bit as we are still in pre-market trading, but we are threatening to break down below the 25,000 level. There are other things to watch on this chart, though, and I think that it’s not just the 25,000 level that could be a bit of a factor. I think you also have to worry about the 50-day EMA and the uptrend line of the previous channel to perhaps turn things around.

At this point in time, you still have to assume that the Nasdaq 100 will continue to find buyers. I also recognize that we are in the midst of earnings season, and there are a lot of rumblings about AI data centers and whether the AI bubble is popping. Maybe, but I don’t really think it’s something that’s happening right this second. If and when we get a bounce—a green day that is reasonably sized, I’m willing to get involved again.

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We Are Still in an Uptrend

This is an uptrend that hasn’t changed, and we have a long way to go before that changes. As long as we’re above $23,500 or so, I think the market is still one you have to look at as a buy-on-the-dip scenario. A move to the upside is what I expect, but I don’t necessarily want to be the first person in the door. I believe that what you’re waiting for is other traders to come in, start pushing things to the upside a little bit, and then you can make the argument to join the longer-term trend. It’ll be interesting to see how Friday plays out because it is the last day of the week, and this is going to give us a lot of a read on what traders believe. If they want to get short heading into the weekend, that’s very negative. If they don’t, that tells you this is just a typical correction.

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