Potential signal:
- I am a buyer of any dip.
- I would be interested in buying $4440, with a stop at the $4000 level, and a take profit level of $4690.
Central banks around the world continue to hold gold and add more to their positions.
The gold market has initially pulled back slightly on Tuesday, only to go racing higher again. At this point, I think it's obvious that you're buying the dip in gold, and we did get a nice pullback into the top of what could be thought of as an ascending triangle. Now I think that's the way we have to look at gold going forward. If it pulls back, you have to be interested in buying it. Anything close to the $4,400 level offers a lot of value here, but quite frankly, you probably need to come down to shorter timeframes. Somewhere near $4,440 would be interesting to me as well.
I don't like chasing markets that have been explosive like this, and a lot of times this comes down to being able to sit on your hands and just simply wait for an opportunity. Central banks around the world continue to hold gold and, of course, add more to their positions, except for Canada. This is a market that I think will continue to get a bit of a push from a shrinking US dollar. If the Federal Reserve is in fact going to start cutting rates in 2026 as well, that does bode well for gold.
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Measured Moves and Technical Outlook
The market highs were just shy of the $4,600 level in the futures market, and I think that is where we're going. The measured move of the ascending triangle suggests that we could go to $4,900. Quite frankly, with all of the geopolitical risk out there, the simple momentum in gold, and of course the attitude that we have seen over the last couple of days, I think this market still has plenty of juice in it.
I have no interest in shorting it as long as we're above $4,000. If we were to break down below $4,000, then even though we're above the 200-day EMA, you would have to assume we're in serious trouble. That's $500 lower than we are right now, so keep that in mind.
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