Bearish view
- Sell the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit at 64,000.
- Add a stop-loss at 74,400.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bullish view
- Buy the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit at 74,420.
- Add a stop-loss 64,000.
The BTC/USD pair remained under intense pressure on Tuesday morning as the recent retreat resumed. Bitcoin dropped to $68,700, inside the range it has remained in the past few days, and much lower than the all-time high of 126,200.
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Bitcoin Price Recovery Loses Momentum
Bitcoin’s price action has coincided with a period of weak open interest in the futures market, a sign that demand remains weak. The broader futures open interest in the crypto industry moved from last year's high of $255 billion to the current $96 billion. Bitcoin’s open interest dipped from over $95 billion last year to the current $45 billion.
The BTC/USD pair also wavered as investors waited for the outcome of the meeting between White House officials and representatives from top American banks and companies in the crypto industry. These officials are working to strike a deal that will let the CLARITY Act go on.
The main issue is that banks have lobbied hard for the bill to ensure that companies like Coinbase and Kraken don't pay rewards to consumers for their stablecoin holdings. Banks argue that allowing these rewards will drain cash from the banking sector.
Bitcoin also retreated as investors waited for the upcoming macro data from the United States, which will come out on Wednesday and Friday. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will publish the latest non-farm payrolls (NFP) data today and Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on Friday.
BTC/USD Technical Analysis
The daily chart shows that the BTC/USD pair has come under pressure in the past few months as buyers remained on the sidelines and the futures open interest dropped from $255 billion in August last year to the current $94 billion.
Bitcoin has dropped below the key support level at $74,420, its lowest level in April last year. It has also dropped below the 50-day and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA).
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has remained slightly above the oversold level of 30, while the Stochastic Oscillator has risen closely to 40.
Therefore, the most likely scenario is that the coin will continue falling, potentially to the psychological level at $60,000. On the flip side, a move above the key resistance level at 74,420 will invalidate the bearish outlook.
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