The bond markets continue to drive where we go in stock markets, with the 4.30% level being a major floor for those rates.
NASDAQ 100
The Nasdaq 100 continued to see a lot of noise during the session on Tuesday, bouncing from the crucial 22,800 level. This happened during early trading as someone dropped the idea that Donald Trump was willing to end the war in the Persian Gulf even if the Strait of Hormuz was closed. This was attributed to a Trump administration aide, although there is no real confirmation of this and it is likely that this is a short-term reprieve. Quite frankly we've seen headlines pump the markets during Asian trading previously and that ended up being a false alarm.
Be Wary of Initial Move
Really at this point in time, I think the biggest thing that you need to keep in the back of your mind is that markets have not been able to really trust anything for any significant amount of time and I just don't see how that changes at this point. I believe ultimately you have a scenario where you need a couple of green days and perhaps something sustainable as far as peace is concerned to get really excited. The market was oversold so quite frankly the headline that came across the wires was probably the excuse everybody was looking for. I do think that you need to pay attention to the 10-year yield in the United States; if it remains above 4.3%, it's difficult to imagine a scenario where the Nasdaq does particularly well. I am more or less in a wait and see type of mode right now as the market has shaken out so many people that have thought it was going to turn around. Eventually we do go higher, but in the meantime, being a little bit patient here could save you a lot of money.