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XAU/USD Gold Price Analysis Today: Global Inflation Fears Recede. Is a New Bullish Wave Beginning?

By Mahmoud Abdallah
Technical Analyst

Mahmoud Abdullah is a financial markets analyst who has been covering global market movements for several years, with a particular focus on forex trading, commodities, indices, and macroeconomic price action analysis. He has been analyzing global financial markets since 2006 and currently serves as the Chief Analyst and Editor-in-Chief of the well-known website Traders Up. Mahmoud Abdullah combines technical analysis with macroeconomic context t...

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Today’s Gold Analysis Overview:

  • The Overall Gold Trend: Returns to Neutrality.

  • Today's Gold Support Points: $4760 – $4710 – $4630 per ounce.

  • Today's Gold Resistance Points: $4850 – $4880 – $4940 per ounce.

Today's Gold Trading Signals:

  • Buy gold from the support level of $4710 with a target of $4800 and a stop-loss at $4690.

  • Sell gold from the resistance level of $4870 with a target of $4730 and a stop-loss at $4900.

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Note: These recommendations are suitable for medium-to-long-term traders, provided there is strict adherence to capital and risk management

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Daily Technical Analysis of Gold/US Dollar (XAU/USD):

Wednesday's trading session has been bullish for XAU/USD, with gains exceeding 2%. Prices rose to the $4857 per ounce resistance level—the highest performance in nearly three weeks—following President Trump's approval of a two-week ceasefire with Iran. This move has eased concerns regarding inflation driven by surging energy costs.

Despite these recent gains, gold remains approximately 11% below its late February highs. This follows aggressive selloffs during the escalation of Middle East tensions, which temporarily weakened its safe-haven appeal. Losses in both gold and silver were further driven by interest rate expectations; rising energy prices linked to the Iran war diminished the likelihood of near-term Fed rate cuts, consequently pressuring non-yielding assets such as gold and silver.

Upcoming Technical Levels for Gold

On the daily chart, the success of spot gold prices in breaking the $4800 resistance barrier has returned performance to the neutral zone. To confirm a bullish technical correction, gold "bulls" must push prices toward the $5000 psychological resistance level again. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) confirms the current neutrality, awaiting stronger indicators to confirm the recent shift. This is also evident in the direction of the MACD indicator.

Conversely, a return of gold prices to the $4650 per ounce support level poses a clear threat to the recent correction. Across gold trading platforms, the price of the precious metal has fluctuated since reaching its all-time high of $5600 earlier this year, rising by only 9%.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the dollar against a weighted basket of currencies, rose by 1.5%. The index has been among the best-performing assets during the ongoing six-week-long Iran trade war.

As is well known, gold typically benefits from a weak dollar, as it becomes cheaper for foreign investors.

Trading Tips

Dear TradersUp trader, the gold market will return to reacting to fundamental factors now that geopolitical tensions have cooled. Decisively, a weaker dollar will guarantee stronger gains.

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Technical Analyst
Mahmoud Abdullah is a financial markets analyst who has been covering global market movements for several years, with a particular focus on forex trading, commodities, indices, and macroeconomic price action analysis. He has been analyzing global financial markets since 2006 and currently serves as the Chief Analyst and Editor-in-Chief of the well-known website Traders Up. Mahmoud Abdullah combines technical analysis with macroeconomic context to understand market trends, paying close attention to price behavior, momentum, support and resistance levels, risk management, and evaluating high-probability market opportunities.

As seen on: mahmoud.a@dailyforex.com

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