The euro has fallen to kick off the session on Wednesday, only to find support yet again against the Swiss franc.
EUR/CHF
The euro has fallen a bit against the Swiss franc, only to turn around and find buyers just above the crucial 0.92 level. The 0.92 level is an area that's been important multiple times in the pair, and it's worth noting that the German interest rates did, in fact, fall, so it's not a huge surprise that we've seen a Euro drift a little more, but we've also seen it recover despite the fact that rates never bounced.
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This tells me that we are moving away from an interest rate story and more to the idea of risk appetite or a lack of risk appetite. Ultimately, we are hanging around the 200-day EMA, and if we can break above the 200-day EMA, it's possible that we go looking to the last swing high near the 0.9265 level.
Technical Outlook and Risk Sentiment
The market breaking above that level opens up a huge move to the 0.9350 level. If we turn around and fall from here, breaking down below the 50-day EMA could open up a move to the 0.91 level, but that would be a major move, anti-risk-taking, meaning that there would be a certain amount of fear in the market.
Keep in mind that the Swiss Franc is considered to be the ultimate “safety currency”, and that would be a situation where we see a lot of fear. When I look at the charts from the longer-term standpoint, I can see clearly that there is a bit of an ascending triangle, and I do, in fact, think we will eventually go much higher. I'm a buyer mainly because I get to hold on to this pair and can get paid at the end of each session via swap.
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