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Gold Analysis: Strong Dollar Pressures Gold... Will the Decline Continue?

By Mahmoud Abdallah
Technical Analyst

Mahmoud Abdullah is a financial markets analyst who has been covering global market movements for several years, with a particular focus on forex trading, commodities, indices, and macroeconomic price action analysis. He has been analyzing global financial markets since 2006 and currently serves as the Chief Analyst and Editor-in-Chief of the well-known website Traders Up. Mahmoud Abdullah combines technical analysis with macroeconomic context t...

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  • Gold's overall trend: Bearish.

  • Today's Gold Support Points: $4,220 – $4,170 – $4,070 per ounce.

  • Today's Gold Resistance Points: $4,320 – $4,380 – $4,440 per ounce.

Today's Gold Trading Signals:

  • Bullish Scenario: Buy gold from the support level of $4,180, with a target of $4,350 and a stop loss at $4,130.

  • Bearish Scenario: Sell gold from the resistance level of $4,400, with a target of $4,230 and a stop loss at $4,470.

Note: These recommendations are suitable for medium-to-long-term traders, provided there is strict adherence to capital and risk management

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Daily Technical Analysis of Gold/US Dollar (XAU/USD):

Despite the Federal Reserve's decision to keep interest rates unchanged, its hawkish tone and keeping the door open for additional monetary policy tightening bolstered the strength of the dollar and weighed heavily on gold. According to top gold trading platforms, we witnessed strong selling pressure that pushed prices down to the support level of $4,220 per ounce. This wiped out the gains from the bullish rebound seen ahead of the bank's announcement, when the price of the yellow metal had climbed to the resistance level of $4,382 per ounce amid improving sentiment following the recent US-Iranian agreement.

Will the Gold Sell-Off Continue?

Based on performance on the daily timeframe, gold prices remain within a clear bearish framework, and breaking the support barrier of $4,200 per ounce will strengthen the sellers' control. Technical indicators are leaning downward; the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is stabilizing below the neutral line, awaiting stronger selling pressure before reaching oversold territory. The MACD indicator trend is bearish, and the simple moving averages (SMAs) are also aligned in favor of seller dominance.

Meanwhile, we do not rule out a collapse in gold prices toward the psychological level of $4,000 per ounce over the medium term if the strength of the US Dollar persists.

Conversely, a bullish scenario for gold on the daily chart requires a move towards the resistance levels of $4,420 and $4,500 per ounce, respectively.

Technically speaking, a daily close below the $4,200 level will confirm the continuation of the bearish trend toward $4,170 and then $4,070 per ounce. Meanwhile, gold needs to return above $4,380 to weaken the selling pressure and regain bullish momentum.

The gold market will be affected in the coming days by the performance of the US dollar, investor risk appetite, and the reaction to banks' gold purchases for hedging purposes.

In the coming days, the gold trading market will be influenced by the performance of the US Dollar, investor risk appetite. Also, the market's reaction to central bank gold purchases for hedging purposes.

Trading Advice:

It is preferable for traders to wait for stronger selling pressure before considering buying again. Also, strict risk management is essential given the ongoing uncertainty in the markets.

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Technical Analyst
Mahmoud Abdullah is a financial markets analyst who has been covering global market movements for several years, with a particular focus on forex trading, commodities, indices, and macroeconomic price action analysis. He has been analyzing global financial markets since 2006 and currently serves as the Chief Analyst and Editor-in-Chief of the well-known website Traders Up. Mahmoud Abdullah combines technical analysis with macroeconomic context to understand market trends, paying close attention to price behavior, momentum, support and resistance levels, risk management, and evaluating high-probability market opportunities.

As seen on: mahmoud.a@dailyforex.com

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