Today’s Gold Analysis Overview:
Gold's overall trend: Remains Bearish.
Today's Gold Support Points: $4,110 – $4,060 – $4,000 per ounce.
Today's Gold Resistance Points: $4,220 – $4,300 – $4,370 per ounce.
Today's Gold Trading Signals:
Bullish Scenario: Buy gold from the support level of $4,050 with a target of $4,400 and a stop loss at $4,000.
Bearish Scenario: Sell gold from the resistance level of $4,280 with a target of $4,120 and a stop-loss at $4,400.
Note: These recommendations are suitable for medium-to-long-term traders, provided there is strict adherence to capital and risk management
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Daily Technical Analysis of Gold/US Dollar (XAU/USD):
The continued strength of the US dollar may renew selling pressure on gold as the new trading week begins. Ahead of the start of trading, skirmishes between the United States and Iran renewed during the negotiation round, threatening investor sentiment and the performance of financial markets, which had experienced a rebound following the announcement of the truce agreement. According to the best gold trading platforms, the yellow metal's recent trading closed around the $4155 per ounce level, and the lowest performance in the same trading week was the support level of $4122 per ounce, the lowest in a week.
Moreover, the decline in demand for precious metals continued due to changes in interest rates following the US Federal Reserve meeting last week.
As announced, the Federal Reserve maintained the target range for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) interest rate at 3.50% to 3.75%. Moreover, it shifted significantly towards a more hawkish monetary policy. The market has moved from discussing interest rate cuts to assessing the risk of a rate hike in 2026. One current estimate indicates a 38.5% probability of a rate hike in July and a 51.7% probability in September, with the possibility of two more hikes before the end of the year remaining. Generally, this new pricing keeps the opportunity cost argument against gold in the spotlight, even as crude oil prices retreat from their war premium levels.
From a technical perspective, the spot gold price is moving within a sensitive range, with buying and selling forces balancing as the market approaches key support and resistance levels that could determine the short-term direction.
Bullish Scenario for Gold
Technically, the gold price needs a clear breakout and stabilization above the resistance zone between $4,180 and $4,200, which could open the door for a new upward move.
If buyers succeed in reinforcing the upward momentum, the next target could be an extension towards the $4,370-$4,390 area, which represents a key medium-term resistance range.
Bearish Scenario for Gold
Conversely, the bearish scenario remains valid if the price fails to break through the current resistances, as sellers are focused on pushing prices down to the important support level at $4,120, the lowest recorded during the last trading session.
Generally, breaking this level is a negative signal that could push prices towards deeper downside targets, starting at $4,040 and then extending to $4,000 as the next major support zone.
Overall, gold trading remains in a state of cautious anticipation between strong support levels and close resistances, with the potential for volatility persisting until one side (buyers or sellers) manages to clearly impose control over the next direction.
Trading Tips:
Selling-on-rallies strategies remain in place, with the absolute necessity of strict commitment to risk management.
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