Gold
The gold market has gapped lower to kick off the previous week, and quite frankly, I think we are going to continue to see a lot of volatility here. All things being equal, this is a market that is likely to see a lot of volatility.
The $4,000 level, I think, continues to be support, and as long as we can stay above there, I think we have a potential for buying short-term dips. But if we were to break down below the $4,000 level, then we could go looking to much lower levels, perhaps the $3,500 level.
If we break above the 50-week EMA, then I think we could go looking to the $4,600 level, but I also recognize that this is a market that has a lot of external influences at the moment. I think the best-case scenario is that we simply consolidate.
EUR/CHF
The euro has fallen pretty significantly against the Swiss franc during the week, but we continue to see the 0.92 level as support. The market bouncing from here makes a certain amount of sense. I think we would just go back and forth, trying to build up the necessary momentum to go to the upside, perhaps breaking above the 0.93 level.
I like the idea of buying a bounce short-term this upcoming week. If we break down below 0.92, then 0.91 could be calling.
USD/CHF
The US dollar rallied this week against the Swiss franc, but it has given back quite a bit of the gains, and therefore, I think we've got a situation where perhaps an overdue pullback is about to happen.
I think the 0.80 level is an area that might be interesting to start buying at, so if we pull back to that area, I'll be watching to see if there is some type of bounce that I can get long of. If we break above the top of the weekly candlestick, then we will challenge 0.82.
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USD/MXN
The US dollar rallied against the Mexican peso during the course of the week, but it seems like the 17.50 level continues to be a significant barrier. The fact that we have given back some of the gains is not a huge surprise, and I think we are more likely than not to try to stay within the previous consolidation area.
The market is likely to be one that remains noisy, but we'll have to see how this plays out. Even if the Mexican peso breaks out to the upside, or rather the US dollar breaks higher against the Mexican peso, I probably will ignore that.
NASDAQ 100
Nasdaq 100 spent the week falling, but quite frankly, I think we've got a situation where we are just going back and forth, trying to work off some of the excess froth from what we had seen previously.
This market is more likely than not going to be one that eventually buyers return to, but as things stand right now, I just don't see a huge need for a big position here.
Short-term dips are more likely than not to offer value, especially if we get close to the 28,500 level. I have no interest in shorting whatsoever.
GBP/USD
The British pound has recovered a bit during the trading week as the 1.32 level seems to be the beginning of significant support. If we do rally from here, the 1.33 level would be a bit of a barrier.
I think we probably stay within this range, but if we can break above the 1.33 level, we could see the British pound open up the possibility of a move to the 1.35 handle.
EUR/USD
The euro has fallen pretty significantly during the course of the trading week, but has turned around to get back to the 1.14 level. The 1.14 level has been a massive short-term support level over the last year or so, and now that we have broken below there and bounced to this area, it'll be interesting to watch how this plays out.
If we can break above the 1.1450 level, it could lead to more euro buying, or we may just simply hang around this crucial 1.14 level. Ultimately, I think this is probably more about the US dollar than anything else.
USD/JPY
The US dollar continues to grind higher against the Japanese yen, and this is a pair that I'm watching very closely because, of course, we have seen a couple of recent breakouts. And now, if we can clear the 162-yen level, then I think the US dollar has much further to go.
The Japanese, of course, have recently intervened, but ultimately, I think short-term pullbacks continue to offer potential buying opportunities, especially near the crucial 160-yen level. The interest rate differential continues to see buyers attracted to the pair.
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