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Bitcoin is holding on to a fragile recovery at the weekly opening on Monday, hovering around $64,000 after last week’s CPI-driven bounce lost some steam. Beyond the price action, on-chain data is telling two stories: The MVRV ratio, one of Bitcoin's core valuation gauges, has fallen into a zone that has historically marked cycle bottoms, while large investors are using the BTC price weakness to buy more on the dips. Together, the two signals describe a market closer to a bottom than a top — but not confirmed to have found one yet.
Bitcoin MVRV Ratio Shows Bear Market Is “Getting Exhausted”
Bitcoin’s Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio, an indicator that measures whether the asset is overvalued, has dropped into territory that preceded the bottoming phase of previous bear markets.
CryptoQuant data shows that the MVRV ratio currently stands near 1.2, slightly above the undervalued zone (green zone), suggesting that Bitcoin is at a discount at current prices.
Historically, each time the ratio dropped into the undervalued zone, it marked a buying opportunity and a local bottom signal.
The last time this happened, it marked the end of the 2018 and 2022 bear markets and preceded1,900% and 720% price rallies in BTC price, respectively.
Bitcoin MVRV ratio. Source: CryptoQuant
The chart above suggests that Bitcoin is once again about to enter the undervalued phase, and it would be required to drop further for the MVRV to drop into the green zone, marking the current cycle low.
The MVRV Z-score, its standardized indicator, has fallen to roughly 0.24–0.5 in recent readings, closing in on the zero line that has coincided with every completed cycle bottom since 2011.
“Bitcoin never reached the historical MVRV capitulation zone this cycle,” analyst QuintenFrancois said in an post in an X post on Sunday, adding that it could only mean two things:
“Either one final flush is coming. Or everyone waiting for old cycle metrics is about to get left behind.”
Bitcoin MVRV Z-score. Source: Bitcoin Magazine
Bitcoin analyst AdamBLiv also flagged the reading on X yesterday as a sign the bear market is “getting exhausted” rather than confirmed over.
“Bitcoin’s bear market is getting old, exhausted, and increasingly unable to explain why the on-chain data refuses to die,” the analyst said in a recent X post.
The distinction matters: a separate breakdown of the same data shows long-term-holder MVRV sitting at a relatively elevated 1.29, while short-term-holder MVRV sits at 0.84, a gap that needed to close before the final low printed in each of the past three cycles.
That divergence is why most analysts stop short of calling a bottom outright. It implies the BTC/USD pair may “still drag us through one final psychiatric basement, but history suggests the opportunity over the next 12–24 months is becoming violently asymmetric,” AdamBLiv, pointed out, adding:
“The bear may own another quarter.”
Bitcoin Whales Scoop $4.2B in BTC in Two Months
Even as the valuation math argues for caution, the buyers doing the accumulating aren't small speculators.
Additional data from CryptoQuant shows Bitcoin wallets, entities with more than 1,000 BTC, added roughly 66,700 BTC, worth about $4.2 billion at current prices, over the past two months.
“Wallets holding 1K-10K BTC increased their 60-day net accumulation to approximately 66,700 BTC, approaching the 68,000 BTC level recorded on June 1,” CryptoQuant analyst Amr Taha said in a Quicktake analysis on Sunday, adding
“This is the cohort’s strongest accumulation reading since February 17, when net accumulation briefly exceeded 106,000 BTC.”
Bitcoin accumulation vs. distribution per cohort. Source: CryptoQuant
This means that large investors are treating the recent weakness as an entry point rather than a reason to de-risk further, reinforcing their long-term conviction in Bitcoin's ability to recover even with the MVRV data suggesting the bottoming process isn't finished.
This whale activity coincided with accumulation among long-term hodlers (LTHs), investors who have held BTC for more than 155 days.
LTH Supply Inflow metric currently sits around 347,700 BTC on a 30-day EMA basis, confirming Bitcoin's long-term-holder cohort has kept adding to its position through the ongoing price weakness.
The pace has slowed compared with earlier in the year, but the direction hasn't reversed: long-term holders remain net buyers, not sellers, even with the price struggling to hold above $65,000.
“However, LTH Supply Inflow is declining compared to the previous period,” CryptoQuant contributor Rei Researcher said in an analysis on Monday, adding:
“Long-term holders are still absorbing supply, but to confirm a stronger accumulation phase, inflow needs to stabilize again or increase while price holds its support zone.”
Bitcoin LTH accumulation vs.distribution. Source: CryptoQuant
My Take on Bitcoin
While MVRV ratio points to a bear market running out of sellers, whale wallets are adding at a $4.2 billion pace, and long-term holders keep growing their share of supply. However, one more leg lower cannot be ruled out.
The LTH/STH MVRV gap suggests it's still possible, but in a market that is being quietly re-accumulated rather than abandoned, with the next real test being whether Bitcoin can reclaim $65,000 on a weekly close.
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