The silver market rallied slightly during the trading session on Friday, but this is also a holiday session in the USA.
Silver
The silver market has rallied slightly during the trading session on Friday, but keep in mind that Friday is now basically over as the Americans are away for the holiday, and therefore, the liquidity and, of course, the trading hours will have been greatly influenced.
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That being said, it looks like we are trying to do everything we can to defend the $60 level. I do think it's probably only a matter of time before we see sellers jump into this market at the first signs of exhaustion, and I'll be watching the 200-day EMA as well as a potential ceiling.
I think short-term traders probably jump in and try to pick this up, but a lot of that will come down to the US dollar and what the US dollar is likely to do. If it starts to rise again, then that will work against silver. Keep in mind, we got that bad jobs report on Thursday, but that could just be a temporary blip. That has been the case previously, so it wouldn't surprise me again.
Ultimately, I do think silver is a longer-term buy-and-hold type of situation, but not with leverage. Leverage, of course, could get you hurt here as silver is so volatile under the best of circumstances, and with that being the case, I don't really want to get aggressive.
Evaluating Monday's Open and Historic Support Levels
What I want to do is wait to see how Monday plays out. If it shows signs of exhaustion, then it could be a potential short. If we break down below the $57 level, that opens up a move all the way down to the $50 level. And $50 is important.
Over the last 50 years, it's been tested a couple of times. We just broke out of it about a year and a half ago, but it was a significant ceiling going all the way back to the 70s and the Hunt brothers, and then again during the financial crisis. So, there is a certain amount of market memory to be found there, I think.
I don't know how much lower silver could go than that, but around that time, I started to really pay attention to market behavior. Again, I don't read too much into the Friday candlestick, just simply because we have seen a serious lack of liquidity.
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