The US dollar has rallied against the Japanese yen again on Monday, as the interest rate differential continues to play out here.
USD/JPY
The US dollar has rallied a bit against the Japanese yen during the trading session here on Monday, bouncing from the 200-day EMA. The interest rates have climbed a little bit during the early part of the trading session on Monday, bouncing from the massive, hugely important 200-day EMA. With the 160 yen level above offering a bit of a target, I am more than comfortable being long of this market despite the fact that the Bank of Japan has intervened a couple of times in the past, once just a couple of weeks ago.
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Bank of Japan Interventions and Long-Term Carry Trade Strategy
The interventions have always invited more buying, and I don't know if that changes, but the reality is that the situation longer term in Japan is tenuous at best. There's an expression: "Japan is a bug looking for a windshield." That's been around for years, and it looks like it's finally coming to fruition.
As I get paid at the end of every day to hold this USD/JPY pair to the upside, I have been doing so for months, and I think I probably will continue to do so going forward unless something fundamentally changes. And right now, it really hasn't. In fact, there's still a 55% chance that the Federal Reserve raises interest rates in September, so that is still working for it.
On short-term pullbacks at this point in time, I am still a buyer of, slowly. This is an investment that I've been in for several months, roughly 10 or so, and so far, it has worked out quite well. Yes, there is volatility, but at the end of the day, if they give you an opportunity to buy cheap US dollars, not necessarily the worst thing.
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