This pair consolidated in early trade on Tuesday as market participants continued to digest last week’s Federal Reserve interest rate hike and another expected increase before the end of the year. While the AUD/USD currency pair remains supported by a hawkish RBA and growing calls for up to three rate increases over the coming months, a high-stakes summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping, coupled with Russia/NATO tensions, cloud the Australian dollar’s near-term directional outlook.
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Australian Data Could Influence AUDUSD This Week
Given the RBA’s hawkish outlook and expected rate hike next week, market participants will closely eye upcoming local PMI and employments data. On Wednesday, traders will scrutinize both manufacturing and services PMI, while on Thursday, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) will publish domestic employment data for August. Hotter-than-anticipated readings for both would significantly strengthen the case for up to three rate hikes in coming months and potentially set the stage for renewed buying interest in the pair.
Australian dollar positioning this week may also be influenced by the outcome of a highly anticipated summit between President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping in Washington and recent reports of an imminent Russian test of NATO. Constructive developments from the summit would likely place a tailwind behind the pair given China’s importance to the Australian economy, though unresolved trade tensions may drive further selling. The currency may also come under pressure amid a flight to the sage-haven dollar on further signs of aggression from the Kremlin.
AUDUSD Consolidation Signals a Possible Next Move
After last week’s U.S. rate hike driven sell-off, the pair has traded within an ascending triangle to indicate consolidation before another potential directional move. A decisive breakdown below the pattern’s lower trendline would suggest a continuation of the pair’s recent decline, while a move back above the pattern would signal a possible resumption of the longer-term uptrend.
AUDUSD Support Levels Remain in Focus
The first support level to watch sits around 0.7085. This area on the chart could attract buying interest near last week’s prominent trough and set the stage for a potential double bottom to form in the pair.
However, the bulls’ failure to defend this key technical level could lead to a steeper decline toward 0.7065. Traders may look to open long positions in this location near the notable August 19 swing low that marked the completion of a pullback to the 50 moving average.
AUDUSD Resistance Levels to Monitor
During recovery efforts, traders should monitor how the pair’s price reacts to the 0.7135 area. This region may provide overhead resistance near the ascending triangle’s top trendline and a looming “death cross,” a chart pattern that signals a new downtrend.
A convincing close above this level would open the door for a potential recovery toward 0.7170. Those who have accumulated positions during the pair’s recent move lower may seek exit points in this location near a horizontal line linking a series of corresponding price action on the chart during the first half of September.
AUD/USD Price Chart
Data and Geopolitical Developments May Shape AUDUSD Direction
The AUD/USD’s next directional move will likely be influenced this week by closely watched domestic economic data and several key geopolitical events. With the prospect of three more RBA interest rate hikes on the table over the coming months, data showing a healthy labor market and inflationary pressure in the services and manufacturing sectors could overshadow a stalemate in the summit between President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart and further safe-haven Greenback buying amid growing tensions between NATO and Russia.
Sources:
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-wrapup-1-2026-09-22/
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