The New Zealand dollar continues to see a lot of pressure, but we did try to rally a bit in the early part of the session on Tuesday. At this point, fading the rallies is how I look to trade this pair.
NZD/USD
The New Zealand dollar has been all over the place for the majority of the trading session on Tuesday, as we have tested the 0.57 level.
Ultimately, this is a market that continues to see the 0.57 level as important. It is an area that has been both support and resistance, and, of course, it is a large, round, psychologically significant figure. The 50-day EMA has recently broken down below the 200-day EMA, and that, of course, kicks off the so-called death cross. I do not pay as much attention to that as I do other indicators, but it is something that some traders will be watching.
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The interest rate differential continues to favor the United States
The candlestick is very neutral and wide-ranging, so I think if we were to break out of this candlestick's range of pricing, that could be a big sign. A breakdown below the 0.57 level is trying to get down to the 0.5650 level. If the market were to break above the 0.5750 level, it opens up the possibility of a move to the 0.58 level.
The interest rate differential continues to favor the United States, as the Federal Reserve is likely to have to raise rates again. New Zealand, on the other hand, is in a lot of trouble, and it looks like the RBNZ is likely to remain very dovish.
New Zealand is highly leveraged to what is going on in Asia, so you will have to watch some of those countries as well. But as things stand right now, I think this is more or less a fade-the-rally type of setup just waiting to happen.
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