The crypto sector was sinking, and continues to look bearish, but Bitcoin is one of the very few bright spots after it refused to break down below $80,000 and turned somewhat bullish instead. Now that the price has started moving higher again, the big breakout to long-term highs above $87,293 is back in play. Bitcoin tends to behave very technically and to respect obvious technical analysis features, so let’s see what the chart is saying.
The daily chart shows stabs down to the $80,000 area which has become very technically significant, followed by a weak but real bullish turnaround in the price action. The price has invalidated one former resistance level but now faces a test as it gets very close to the next resistance level at $82,875. We already see this level is having some effect as the bullish momentum has slower over the past few hours.
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I think this holding of $80,000 could be a very significant moment for Bitcoin. Clearly today’s pivotal point is very likely to be that resistance at $82,875. I would not go long for a short-term trade above $82,875 but I am glad I am long from some days ago.
Bitcoin Price Chart – $82,875 Looking Pivotal
My Take on BTC/USD
I am already long of Bitcoin as a trend trader, and I use a volatility-based trailing stop, but I think a daily close below $80,000 would be a good signal for anyone to get out of a long position if they are only in it for the relatively short term.
I think a daily close above $87,293, especially if near the top of the day’s range within an unusually large daily candlestick, will be an exciting signal to either enter a new long trade, or add to a long position if already long.
A daily close above $82,875 could be a good reason to go long as a swing or position trade, if you place your stop loss some way below the support level at $80,000.
Review, Support & Resistance Levels
My previous BTC/USD signal on 12th October was not triggered.
Today’s BTC/USD Signals
Risk 0.50% per trade.
Trades may be taken before 5pm Tokyo time Tuesday.
Long Trade Idea
Go long after a bullish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe following the next touch of $80,000..
Place the stop loss $100 below the local swing low.
Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
Short Trade Ideas
Go short after a bullish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe following the next touch of $82,875, $84,508, or $84,975.
Place the stop loss $100 above the local swing high.
Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
There is nothing of high importance scheduled today concerning either Bitcoin or the US Dollar.
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