The euro continues to see a lot of noise, but at this point in time, it seems like we are dealing with a lot of negativity. This market will continue to see a lot of questions about rates and the French debt markets.
EUR/USD
The euro has been pretty noisy during the trading session here on Friday, which makes sense considering that the jobs report in the United States came out much lower than anticipated: an addition of 29,000 jobs, versus expectations of 90,000.
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All things being equal, though, we have a situation where it’s not so much about interest rates in America, jobs, and such. Right now, it’s about French debt, which is suddenly a problem. This is a situation that we will have to watch very closely, as it could weigh upon the entire zone given enough time.
Ultimately, this is a market that I like selling rallies.
All things being equal, this is a market that I think still sees plenty of sellers, and the 1.13 level offered resistance, right along with the 1.14 level. I do think this continues to be bearish, and now that we have broken through the 1.13 level, I believe that it probably goes much lower.
The one thing that would change, of course, is if we get the situation sorted out in France with the debt problems, and we get some type of energy being sent to the European Union as a constant.
There are still a lot of concerns when it comes to the availability of Qatari natural gas and, of course, oil coming out of the Persian Gulf. I think Europe could be running into a bit of a buzzsaw here. This is a market that will be worth watching for reactions about the European Union, which has a ton of issues, such as energy as well.
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