The US dollar continues to see a bit of resistance at the 18.50 level, despite the rising interest rates in the US after CPI numbers were released.
USD/MXN
The U.S. dollar has rallied a bit against the Mexican peso during the trading session here on Wednesday, as the CPI numbers came out hotter than anticipated.
That being said, it has sent rates in the United States to higher levels, and the interest rate differential between the United States and Mexico continues to shrink. The 18.50 level is an area I'm watching very closely. It's an area that's been both support and resistance previously, and therefore I think we have to believe that this market is looking for some type of reason to continue to go higher or to pull back. That will more likely than not be found in the bond market.
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The market breaking above this area is a bullish sign
With this being the case, I am keeping an eye on the 10-year yield. It is starting to rise again after that CPI number. The market breaking above this area is a bullish sign, but I'm not looking to buy the U.S. dollar, at least not against the Mexican peso.
The interest rate differential still favors Mexico, so if I'm going to buy the dollar, I'm going to buy it against currencies that yield less. The central bank in Mexico is more or less noncommittal, maybe a little bit dovish, so that could help shrink this as well. But still, the easier path is down in this pair.
So I'm looking for signs of exhaustion and rates dropping in America to start shorting. In the meantime, I'm going to sit on my hands. This is a pair that's definitely very good when the dollar is falling apart. We're not seeing that right now, so a word of caution here in the Mexican peso.
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