The euro did initially rally against the U.S. dollar during the trading session on Monday, mainly, I believe, in reaction to the statements coming out of Iran that the government may be willing to talk to the Americans again. That gives the impression that maybe energy markets will cool off, and they did initially during the session.
But all things being equal, this is a market that's been negative for some time, and the energy situation in winter in the European Union has not been fixed by this. The ECB is fairly noncommittal about its interest rate policy going forward, and the Federal Reserve is likely to raise rates in December. So this all ties together for a stronger U.S. dollar.
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Rallies at this point in time, I think, continue to see resistance near the 1.1250 level.
The market is likely to roll over, and I am shorting this pair every time it jumps. The interest rate differential does continue to see traders getting paid to be short. I don't like the euro. I don't want to buy the euro against the U.S. dollar out of all of the currencies out there.
Ultimately, this is very choppy and noisy, and the market, I think, needs to break well above the 1.1350 level to become bullish. We have the JOLTS numbers coming out of America tomorrow, the Services PMI on Wednesday, and then Friday we get the jobs number, which of course would be a bigger deal.
I continue to fade. I continue to be bearish.
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